Some Basic Truths About Uncertainty
By Dr. Gerald Mulenburg, PMP:
A major difficulty of project management is dealing with the inherent uncertainty involved. There are no perfect project plans, and there is little rationale for expending the time and resources needed to try to make them perfect.
Agile project management is one example that shows how reducing the amount of planning in a highly uncertain environment can provide more opportunities to deal with uncertainty as it arises over the life of a project. Other ways to deal with uncertainty in projects begins and ends with understanding what I call the three basic truths about uncertainty in projects.
I. Uncertainty exists.
II. Uncertainty results from incomplete information, or the unknowns involved.
III. Uncertainty ends when the unknowns are revealed.
Reducing uncertainty depends on understanding at least six key elements about it:
- Point of view
- Intention
- Communication
- Effort
- Focus
- Judgment
1. Point of View
When thinking about project management, what is the right point of view to take? It depends a lot from where you’re viewing the project. Each stakeholder’s viewpoint is based on what they need or expect from the project.
-The customer and/or user view of what they need
-Management’s view of achieving some desired strategic objective
-The program manager’s view of the contribution to their program
-The sponsor’s view of how well the project is meeting its plan
-The project manager’s view of how effectively and efficiently execution of the work is being accomplished
-The project team’s view from how well they are being supported in doing their work
2. Intention
Intention is how a project fits into each of these points of view. Due to differences in expectations of the various stakeholders, the total sum of the individual intentions for the project may not be wholly achievable, and some compromise is necessary among the stakeholders. The intention for the project is to try and balance the stakeholders’ intentions by first clarifying them, and then meeting them as well as is practical.
3. Communication
Communication is the lubricant that makes a project flow smoothly. It is close to being an absolute that all problems on projects are due to some problem with communication. Effective communication begins at the highest levels where a project originates with the definition of what is needed and expected from the project. This need and expectation must be made clear throughout all levels of a project- from management through the sponsor, to the project manager, the team, and even to ancillary participants such as vendors and others involved in some way with the project.
4. Effort
Effort of course is the dedicated energy needed for project accomplishment. This is not just the energy of the team doing the work, but the energy needed from all of the stakeholders to make a project successful. Effort doesn’t end after a stakeholder’s initial involvement is over; it is the energy continually added to the project throughout its lifecycle.
5. Focus
Focus ensures that the energy expended on the project is done in the most effective and efficient manner: the right work is being done on the right things, in the right way, at the right time. This requires the project manager to carefully determine, authorize, and monitor the order of work being done, and how well it’s being done in meeting the agreed upon schedule.
6. Judgment
The unknowns creating uncertainty in a project require making a lot of decisions;, not only in the best interest of accomplishing the project, but also in the best interest of the product of the project during its useful lifetime. There is little to celebrate in completing a project that delivers a product prohibitively expensive to maintain, or with an unacceptably short life. However, it is not only the judgment for decisions of the project manager and team that is involved. Judgment begins with management deciding on which projects to pursue and then following those projects through their development to ensure that adequate support is provided, when needed. These are, after all, management’s projects. Those involved in completing a project are only management’s instruments to accomplishing it.
I feel strongly that incorporating these six key elements into your projects will help to better understand and reduce the uncertainty involved.
On past projects, how did you use these six elements?
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