By Bill Flury

A deadline is approaching. You are checking your project schedule and see that John’s task is due to be finished a week from today. You catch up with John and the following conversation ensues:

You: “John, your task is due next Wednesday. When will you be done?’
John: “Shortly”

You, “Are you having any problems?”
John: “A lot of small ones, but no show stoppers?”

You: “So, when do you think you’ll finish?”
John: “In a few days or so, probably by Tuesday”.

You: “Can I count on you to finish on time?”
John: “Absolutely! I’m 100% certain”.

Will John Finish On Time? What Do You Think?

John is speaking in a language that is best called “Vague-Specific”. This is a form of language in common use by many. Here are some examples of how it works.

The Long-Time Married Couple: When they are headed out for a night at the theater, one spouse will say, “Are you ready to go?” The other will respond, “I’ll be down shortly.”  Over the years they have come to a mutually understood Vague-Specific meaning of shortly and the spouse who asked the question plans to be ready to go out the door in approximately 7 ½ minutes.

The project team that has worked together for a long time: Through time, the team has defined many of its own important terms. One group has developed a set of Vague-Specific terms to express the amount of time it is likely to take to resolve some of the types of problems that are common in their work.  They have agreed on the following: Small (2-3 hours to resolve); Medium (4-8 hours to resolve), and Large (“We’d better discuss it.”). This works for them.

Understanding Common Vague Specific Terms
Researchers have done several serious studies of how and why people use the Vague-Specific language. They use it when they are unable or unwilling to be accurate and specific, or they think it is unnecessary or inappropriate to do so. Here are some of the research results.

  • Expressing Time: In web discussions of Vague-Specific definitions and values you will find some wonderful ways of expressing time.
  • Presently: When immediately is over and before Soon. (See Also: in the near future; before long; in a little while). There are also some old terms for this: in the twinkling of an eye; before you know it and; in a jiffy.
  • Soon:  May be interpreted differently in different regions. It means whatever number of hours, days, or weeks is commonly acceptable in the local environment. In a fast paced city environment Soon might be “in a New York Minute” (itself a Vague-Specific term) and in a relaxed environment it can mean “When I’m not busy with all the other things I’m doing” – and that could be days or weeks away.
  • Shortly: Synonym for Soon.
  • Later: Pretty well covered by Soon and Shortly but can be after that.

Expressing Quantities:

  • One: Almost always means just one and is pretty specific. However, it is often paired with other terms that make it vaguely specific. Example: “I’ll give you just one more chance”. Or, “I’ll be there in one hour”.
  • Few: This is more than a couple (commonly 2-4, as in a couple of days) and can be up to five.
  • A Lot: When someone says they have a lot of problems they typically mean somewhere between 6 and 10 and, if they say “a whole lot” they may be telling you they have as many as 17.

Expressing Problems Size:

  • No Big Deal – Negligible, unless it is clear that the speaker hasn’t really looked into it, in which case, see Large.
  • Small: This type of problem will take 2-3 hours to resolve.
  • Medium: This type of problem usually requires 4-8 hours to resolve.
  • Large: All problems are Large unless the speaker/writer is willing to admit that they are really either Small or Medium.
  • Show-Stopper:  This is used for problems requiring more resolution time than we have left to address and resolve. (Often characterized in texting as OMG!)

Expressing Probabilities
Barry Boehm, in his 1989 book, “Software Risk Management” presented the results of his formal study of what people really mean when they express the probability of occurrence of software development project risks. Here is what he found:

  • Almost Certain, Highly Likely: 85-100%
  • Probably, Likely: 55-85%
  • Better Than Even: 50-55%
  • Almost No or Little Chance: 5-25%
  • Slight, Highly Unlikely: 1-15%
  • No Way: 0.1-1%

Will John Finish His Task On Time?
Let’s now consider your discussion with John. Let’s fill in values for the Vague-Specific terms that John used in his answers:

You: “John, your task is due next Wednesday. When will you be done?’
John: “Shortly”

In John’s work group, Shortly has come to mean “in a few (3-5) days”. There are five workdays between now and next Wednesday and there’s also a weekend so meeting the deadline seems pretty safe.

You, “Are you having any problems?”
John: “A lot of small ones, but no Show Stoppers?”

 John has a lot (6-10) of small (2-3 hours to resolve) problems and no medium or Show Stoppers for a maximum of 30 hours of known problem resolution time. As above, there are 40 regular work hours available before the deadline so it still looks good as long as John doesn’t have a “whole lot” of problems. That could require up to 51 hours of problem resolution time.

You: “So, when do you think you’ll finish?”
John: “Probably in a couple of days or so”.

John says it is probable (55-85%) that he will finish in a couple of days (usually 2-5 but a maximum of 7) of days or so and the “or so” might add a day or two to his estimate. In the past, John’s “couple of days” has usually meant four. We can be optimistic and assume that there is an 85% chance that he will finish within the deadline in four days or, we can be pessimistic and assume that there is only a 55% chance of being done in four days. Meeting the deadline is beginning to look a little shaky, so we better check one o more time.

You: “Can I count on you to finish on time?”
John: “Absolutely! I’m 100% certain”.

You need to know that, in all the time that John has been on the team he has never missed a deadline so let’s give him credit for being 100% certain and we will expect him to finish on time. However, we’ll check again on Monday.

Learning to Live With The Vague-Specific Language
If vagueness is a problem and specifics are important to you or your work, here are a couple* of things you should do:

  • Be aware of the extent of its use: The Vague-Specific is used everywhere. Watch for it to appear in all forms of written and spoken communication. Learn to live with it.
  • Learn the local dialect: Tune in to the way Vague-Specific is being used where you live and work. Make sure that everyone agrees to a common vocabulary and the same definitions for all of the terms you and they use. Work hard to:
    • Hear and understand what others are really saying. Build your own mental dictionary and calibrate the terms they are using
    • Adjust your own language to the local definitions so that you are correctly understood by others
  • Minimize the underlying reasons for its use: Find ways to demonstrate the ways that being more specific will aid communication and reduce misunderstandings and confusion. Work with the Vague-Specific speakers and writers to encourage and enable them to be more specific.

Will these things help? — Probably.

* Remember that a couple can be 2-4, sometimes as many as 5.

What vague-specific terms have you heard over the years? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

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